The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has just released its Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2021-2023, which outlines scenarios for recovering international arrivals in the region.
PATA’s forecast report uses estimated baseline data for 2020 from 39 destinations in the Asia-Pacific region.
The report shows that, between 2019 and 2020, the Asia-Pacific region has witnessed a decline of 577 million foreign arrivals. This loss is projected to continue this year.
However, PATA forecasts that in 2022, the situation may have more positive signs. The Asia region is forecasted to reach an annual increase of 320.3% in the mild scenario or 75.2% in the severe scenario.
However, PATA also noted that because the number of international arrivals has declined significantly in the past year, even with such high growth, the absolute number of visitors is still lower than the benchmark of 2019. The recovery rate of Asia in 2022 relative to 2019 only reached 46.6% under the mild scenario or 44.7% under the severe scenario.
The PATA report said that if there is any recovery this year, it is expected to come from most of the Northeast Asian source markets, especially Russia.
Liz Ortiguera, CEO of PATA, said: “Expectations for a return to the past should be shelved and more attention paid to those source and destination markets best preparing to drive recovery within the Asia Pacific. Travel recovery is being driven by a complex range of factors from the varying market policies regarding virus control and containment to local citizens’ sentiments on vaccine take-up.”
“On a positive note, our forecast projects a pent-up demand for travel experiences in the Asia Pacific region. Flexibility in marketing and delivering new experiences to engage travelers as corridors open up will be critical.”